Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
